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The saying goes “You can never have too much pitching,” and time and time again this theory has proven true. Just think back to the Bronson Arroyo – Willy Mo Pena trade if you need convincing. Even a season ago, it was thought that the Red Sox bullpen would be too deep with talent. Joel Hanrahan, Andrew Bailey, Alfredo Aceves, and Andrew Miller were supposed to make up one of the best bullpens in the game and other players on the roster could have to be moved to accommodate them. But the team didn’t dispose of their depth, finding ways to keep it. As the season went on, the above mentioned players found themselves out of the picture or out for the season, and that depth was put to the test. It’s safe to say they passed the test, as throughout the year despite all the injuries Boston had a very good bullpen and pitching staff.
The 2014 Red Sox face a similar predicament, having many good options for their pitching staff and not enough spots. The roles players will be fighting for lie in the bullpen, as the starting rotation seems pretty set in stone.
While the Sox don’t have that dominate number one ace like a Clayton Kershaw or Justin Verlander, what they do have is five above average starters and one of the deepest rotations in all of baseball. Jon Lester, coming off a dominating postseason, is the team’s ace. He’s had stretches where he is untouchable, but has also had stretches where he struggles for an extended period of time. His month of June specifically was where he struggled most last year, as he had an ERA of 7.62 over five starts. The preceding and following months however were much more Lester-like, eating up innings and leading the staff down the stretch. Lester is in line for another good season, just don’t overreact too much if there is period of time he struggles.
The ace of the staff the first months of last season for Boston was Clay Buchholz, and he was one of the best pitchers in baseball during this time. Shoulder and neck problems halted his season, and he never really was that dominating pitcher for the rest of the year. He gutted out some postseason starts clearly not at 100%, though he is reportedly fully healthy this year. He has a tough injury history and staying healthy in 2014 is a big question mark for the team as he has the stuff to be one of the top pitchers in the game.
John Lackey and Jake Peavy both come off good seasons and their continued success adds to the depth of this rotation. Lackey’s year especially was good and unexpected, and even if he is unable to match the work he did in 2013 he has reaffirmed to Red Sox nation he is a bulldog on the mound that wants the ball and can he a good pitcher. Both guys have had injury problems over the years, so keeping them fresh and healthy is a key goal for the organization this year.
The final spot belongs to Felix Doubront, who has looked very good this spring. He has come into camp in better shape and has pitched great in his early outings. We have seen spurts of greatness from him over his short career, but he never fully put it together. Each year it seems he takes steps in the right direction, and at age 26 I think we will finally see him reach his potential.
Moving to the bullpen, the back end looks really strong and really deep. Koji Uehara returns as closer after a magical 2013. It’s unfair to expect the 38 year old to match what he did last year as that was a season for the ages, not to mention he threw more innings than anyone could have anticipated. The good news is the team has other closing options that allow them to manage his innings however they want to. Edward Mujica signed in the offseason after serving most of the 2013 as the Cardinals closer. In total he amassed 37 saves before he got worn out in September and lost his job. He enters the year as one of the primary setup men on this club and likely will be first in line for saves when Uehara can’t pitch. Junichi Tazawa and Craig Breslow are coming off great postseason runs and will be relied upon heavily again in 2014. Fans know how crucial they were to the teams success, as they both got several key outs late in big games.
Andrew Miller returns from a foot injury that cost him the final half of 2013, and as a power pitching lefty he has great value for this team as more than just a lefty specialist. Burke Badenhop was added from the Brewers for more depth and is a solid pitcher when used right. Chris Capuano was added early in spring as a long relief type pitcher, essentially filling the role Ryan Dempster would have played: a veteran presence that can spot start in a pinch.
Assuming the team starts the season with twelve pitchers it seems that these guys would be the pitchers they go with, though obviously nothing is set in stone. But we haven’t mentioned someone who pitched very well in the playoffs and probably should be on this roster. That is Brandon Workman. How can someone who didn’t allow an earned run in 8.2 innings of playoff baseball not make this team? Fair or unfair, he is the player out of everyone mentioned with minor league options remaining. Plus the team still wants him to be a starting pitcher at some point. Even though he was an important piece to the World Series puzzle, getting sent to the minors to work on starting may be what’s best for the team at this point. Should there be an injury of any sort, he would be the first man called up.
The minor league pitching depth is the deepest I can remember it in terms of young talent. Drake Britton enjoyed success at the big league level last year though appears destined for Pawtucket. Alex Wilson and Brayan Villarreal also saw big league time with the Red Sox last year, plus the team signed lefty specialists Rich Hill and Tommy Layne. Allen Webster, Anthony Ranaudo, Matt Barnes, and Rubby De La Rosa are all highly touted prospects ready to make an impact as well, so the minor league pitching depth appears to be ready whenever they are called upon.
Injuries happen, and no matter how much pitching a team has, history has shown it is never enough. That being said, the Sox look to have as much depth as any team in baseball and over the course of 162 games, it should hold up better than most because of the amount of arms they have.
Spring Training games started this week around Major League Baseball, another milestone for fans and another sign that the regular season is fast approaching. Last week I took a look at the Red Sox outfield situation, and there was some uncertainty about who would be making the Opening Day roster. There’s speculation on where Jackie Bradley Jr. will start the season and what to expect from Grady Sizemore. However, the infield roster positions seem pretty set in stone. At this point, it is a matter of what to expect from each spot.
There are two absolute locks in the infield, Dustin Pedroia at second and Mike Napoli at first. Pedroia, barring injury, will be on the field 160+ games again. Fans know what to expect from him, though don’t be surprised if he adds a little more pop as his thumb injury sapped some power from his 2013 campaign. Napoli is coming off a very good year for Boston, not only hitting for power and run production but playing solid defense at first base. The one new thing I’m looking for him to improve upon is his strikeout rate. This has been a part of his game for most of his career, but he has said that he was bothered at the amount of strikeouts he had last season. The Sox will probably trade some extra strikeouts for more homers, but getting his strikeout rate down should help his overall numbers in 2014.
As of now, Stephen Drew remains unsigned but doesn’t appear likely to end up in Boston. Should the Sox change their mind and sign him, he would take over at shortstop everyday. I don’t think they should go in this direction because I truly believe in what they already have on the left side of the infield: Xander Bogaerts and Will Middlebrooks.
Bogaerts, the number two prospect in all of baseball, showed the Sox what he can do on the brightest stage, performing very well in the postseason and taking the starting third baseman job. Now penciled in as the starting shortstop, we should generally see the same things we saw at the end of last year. A word constantly associated with Bogaerts is “poise,” and anyone who watches him play every day can see that. He is not intimidated by any stage and remains collected on the diamond. He can drive the ball to all fields while showing plate discipline. As with any young player, there will be learning curves along the way and he will continue to grow and add to his game. However Bogaerts is one of the future superstars of this game and I expect an impressive year from him.Middlebrooks is the organization’s former number one prospect, but fell on hard times last season. After struggling with Boston he was demoted to Pawtucket and played on and off after being recalled. Despite these struggles, Middlebrooks is penciled in as the every day third baseman and his production remains one of the biggest questions for this team. He has the potential to hit 30 home runs as his power, specifically his opposite field power, is above average. When I first saw him play this aspect of his game really stood out and still does. Even in a down year last season he hit 17 homers in 93 games. So what does he have to do? Too many times last year at both levels he rolled over outside pitches to shortstop instead of taking what the pitcher gave him and shoot the ball the other way. This would allow him to display his opposite field power better while raising his average. While we may have to accept that Middlebrooks will never be a .300 hitter, being a .250 hitter with 25-30 home runs will do the job towards the bottom of the order. The organization doesn’t want to give up on him because of his great potential, but if he can’t take steps in the right direction this year he may be in another uniform before season’s end.
For backup infielders, look for Mike Carp and Daniel Nava to play first base when Napoli is out of the lineup. Carp has more experience there but Nava has worked since the start of last year to improve at this spot. The only other infielder on the roster is Jonathan Herrera, who can play second, third, and shortstop. Herrera was acquired when the team sent Franklin Morales and Chris Martin to Colorado in December. A good utility piece, his versatility gives the Sox some insurance should Bogaerts or Middlebrooks struggle at any point. He doesn’t offer much in terms of power or speed, but he’s a solid infielder who hit at .292 last season. He’s not someone I’d be comfortable relying on for an extended period of time, but as a backup infielder he’s a great fit.
This group has proven talent as well as potential All Stars. With Bogaerts likely starting off hitting around the six spot in the order and Middlebrooks hitting around eight, their production will make the Boston lineup one of the deepest in all of baseball.
by TIM SCOTT
The glory of winning Olympic gold, the pride of representing your nation, and the dreams of success on the international stage are the driving forces behind anybody’s Olympic aspirations. Whether it be in the summer, or in the winter (like this year’s Sochi Olympics), many athletes share the same passions, bonding on a platform of athletic ingenuity while participating in the competitive atmosphere of sports.
However, like many removed Olympic sports before, baseball players around the world have not had the opportunity to revel in those dreams for many years. Ever since the International Olympic Committee (IOC) decided to remove baseball and softball from the Olympic Program after the 2008 games in Beijing, supporters of the sport have feverishly tried to restore the sport’s status on the Olympic stage. Despite strong advocacy from many supporters, baseball and softball were not selected by the IOC for the 2020 Olympic program, instead choosing to reinstate wrestling.
Baseball was first played in the 1904 Summer Olympics, and after many years of intermittent competition, became an official Summer Olympic sport in 1992. The popularity of baseball at the Summer Olympics spanned globally, as eight teams and 160 athletes were able to participate in the Summer Olympics. Cuba may have won the most medals during the five Olympic tournaments (3 gold, 2 bronze), but it was the global appeal of baseball (each populated continent had representation at some point during the five tournaments) that made the Olympic tournaments more unique, and intriguing to watch.
However, in the grand scheme of Olympic planning, baseball was fighting a losing battle against other globally-defined sports, such as golf and rugby sevens (the two sports voted into the London Olympic Program). In an interview with MLB.com in 2008, former IOC head Jacques Rogge stated that in order for baseball to rejoin the Olympic program, “you would need to have a sport with a following, you need to have the best players and you need to be in strict compliance with WADA (World Anti-Doping Agency). And these are the qualifications that have to be met. When you have all of that, you have to win hearts. You can win the mind, but you must still win the hearts.”
Essentially, Rogge argued that professionalism, globalism, and clean competition are the three main factors behind baseball’s inclusion into the Olympic program. The first problem affecting nations such as the United States is the fact that professional athletes should compete in the Olympic Games. In the past, the United States sent minor leaguers and Major League free agents to the Olympic Games, and have finished with mediocre results (1 gold, 2 bronze). The obstacle for the United States is trying to convince America’s best baseball players to step forward from their comfortable confines, and represent the nation on the international stage. This would mean trying to tamper with the Major League season, which runs during the traditional Olympic calendar. A proposal that resonated throughout the MLB was to suspend the season one month while professionals played in the Olympic tournament. Although that could lead to international success, most players and fans would not be in support of that policy, due to the notion that fans would miss watch their teams for a month (similar to the NHL and their Olympic guidelines) and that players would have to interrupt their training regimens and pitching cycle in order to join the American team on the international stage.
Countering the removal of baseball from the Olympic program, the major professional baseball leagues created a tournament sanctioned by the International Baseball Federation (IBAF) known as the World Baseball Classic. There, 16 teams would be grouped into pools, and the best teams from each pool would have the opportunity to compete for the championship. Despite successful tournaments in 2006, 2009, and 2013, the support for the tournament in the United States has been minimal, due to the lack of big-name players participating in the tournament. Despite having players like Ryan Braun, Giancarlo Stanton, Joe Mauer, and David Wright in the fold, most people did not take to the excitement of the tournament, simply because high-profile players (Justin Verlander, Mike Trout, Clayton Kershaw, etc.) did not elect to participate in the tournament. Although the sport of baseball has tried to recapture its glory on the international stage, the rapport for international support for the United States baseball team has struggled due to the lack of big-name professional players donning the red, white, and blue with the aim of winning the championship.
Alongside professionalism, globalism is another issue that baseball has to work out in order for its Olympic status to be renewed. On the surface, this issue seems minimal, as 51 countries have sent players to play in the Major Leagues since 1876. However, the depth of this international passion, as evidenced by the lower number of Major Leaguers in some countries, seems to be a concerning factor for the IOC. Despite a large contingency of Major Leaguers from the Dominican Republic, Japan, Canada, Puerto Rico, and Venezuela, many countries that participated in the Olympics and World Baseball Classic did not have many Major League players to their name. For example, Italy, a team that has been a consistent participant in the World Baseball Classic, has no active players in the Major Leagues. In order to maintain their competence, players with Italian descent chose to play for Team Italy in the World Baseball Classic, a policy that can’t be carried over in the Olympic Games. Since some countries have to depend on international mercenaries to fill out their rosters, it may be alarming for the international support system that most countries can’t field teams of talented players to compete against the likes of professional juggernauts (USA, Japan, Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, Venezuela, etc.).
In order to fill this international void, the Major Leagues has established many initiatives to rally international support for the sport in many countries. Most teams have established training programs in countries such as China and Aruba in order to develop talented players. Also, teams have traveled to nations where baseball hasn’t prospered to find raw talent. One example occurred in India, where the Pittsburgh Pirates signed two Indian pitchers after their participation in the reality TV Show Million Dollar Arm. Although Rinku Singh and Dinesh Patel have not broken into the major leagues yet, their influence and admiration throughout India has helped the nation develop a following for baseball that was barely present in prior years. In effect, the programs established by the MLB has developed an international admiration for the game, spreading the game’s popularity worldwide, and helping its case to restore its Olympic status.
In addition to professionalism and globalism, clean competition is needed in order for baseball to thrive as an Olympic sport. Due to the recent scandals involving performance-enhancing drugs that have rocked the Major League community, many initiatives have been taken by Major League baseball to protect the pureness of the game. In compliance with WADA and other drug prevention programs, the MLB has suspended numerous Major and Minor League players for 50 games or more for drug violations. The effects these initiatives as the translate to the international level are a major factor towards the sport’s inclusion as an Olympic sport. The IOC, who has had to endure many drug scandals throughout its tenure, wants to ensure the purity of sport during their Olympic competitions, and believes that baseball should clean up before it is reconsidered as an Olympic sport. If many players comply with the drug policies set forth by Major League Baseball and WADA, then that would significantly affect the prognosis of baseball as an Olympic sport.
If baseball can emphasize its professional, global, and pure standards that have made it a popular game throughout the world, then it should be reinstated as an Olympic sport simply because of its international support. Nationalism and dedication, which are the heart and soul of the Olympic competitions, are two things that baseball brings to the table effectively. Ever since 1992, three countries (Cuba, United States, and South Korea) have been able to tout themselves as the strongest baseball nations on the Olympic stage. Being able to call oneself the best in something is a feeling that is rarely duplicated, making the nation and its people feel confident and stronger in the process. If the IOC wants to have nationalism and loyalty thrive within the confines of their games, then they should definitely reconsider bringing baseball back to the Olympic Games. Whenever baseball is restored into the Olympic Program, it will return stronger than ever before, capitalizing on the opportunity to repair the mistakes made in the previous five Olympic baseball tournaments.
As the Red Sox enter 2014 as defending Champions, this team is different from the team that won it all last season. With the season approaching rapidly, I will take a look at what the team has done in the offseason to improve, replace departed pieces and get ready to contend again. In the weeks leading up to Opening Day I’ll evaluate the Sox infield situation as well as their pitching, but we’ll start today by looking at their 2014 outfield.
There may be no bigger change to the Red Sox lineup than the centerfield position. Most people knew that the team would not be able to resign Jacoby Ellsbury this offseason, and his departure left a hole not only in center, but atop the Sox lineup. While losing someone of Ellsbury’s caliber may cripple some teams, it opens the door for possibilities in Boston. As they say: the more things change, the more they stay the same, and that would hold true for Jackie Bradley Jr. as he again will be a huge story throughout spring. Questions about his ability to be an everyday centerfielder have lingered throughout the offseason, though he is all but sure to be the starter on Opening Day. The question is, can he handle it?
Bradley, who will turn 24 in April, is not going to be what Ellsbury was last season. He won’t steal 50 bases nor will he anchor the top of the lineup. But that doesn’t mean he won’t be productive, especially for a centerfielder. Bradley will not have to do the things Ellsbury did when batting towards the bottom of the order. His patience at the plate and ability to work his way on base will be valued at that spot, giving Boston a deeper lineup than most teams. He can make plays on the base paths, though not nearly to the extent of Ellsbury. Bradley also will not hit for much power, though he could reach double digit home runs by season’s end. What Bradley can do, and do better than Ellsbury, is field his position. Anyone who has seen Bradley play knows he is a natural in centerfield, gliding to balls others wouldn’t get to while making tough plays look routine. While people will be hesitant to say Bradley is a better defender than Ellsbury, those who get to watch him play everyday will not be surprised with the comparison. To expect Bradley to have an All-Star season is setting the bar too high, but those who doubt he can play at this level will see is a budding star.
For all the things Bradley can do, the role of leadoff hitter is not yet one of them. That role will be filled by postseason hero Shane Victorino. Victorino slots nicely into the leadoff spot after batting second most of 2013, a move that also allows Dustin Pedroia to go back to the two spot where he is more comfortable. His biggest concern will be health, as he is coming off surgery on his thumb and wrist not to mention a back injury that held him out some games in the playoffs. Managing him throughout the season will be important, and that should be doable as the Sox have plenty of outfield options. A healthy Victorino will play an important part in the Sox offense again, as his skills and knack for the big hit will be on display again.
With those two spots pretty much set, leftfield will see a platoon again between Daniel Nava and Jonny Gomes. I usually don’t like platoon situations as the main option for a team, however with the unselfish attitude that this team possesses it works very well. Nava will see a bulk of the action again, not only because he would hit against right handed pitching but because of his lineup versatility. He can hit anywhere in the lineup and give a solid at bat each time up. Gomes will get the starts against most lefties, though he will have plenty of at bats whether it’s in the starting lineup or as a pinch hitter. “Mr. Intangible” showed what his game is all about throughout the 2013 regular and postseason. He along with Nava will have very similar roles as they did a season ago, and they should both thrive in these roles again.
Newly signed Grady Sizemore will be the competition in centerfield for Bradley, and what to expect from him is truly unknown. He’s played 112 games since 2010, none since 2012. In his prime, he was an elite player who could do it all. Now, the Sox hope he can regain any of his old form while providing insurance behind Bradley. Regardless of his success, he will be managed physically to ensure he doesn’t sustain another injury. I expect him to be another member of the Sox outfield platoon, with the chance to see some starts should Bradley struggle.
A man people forget is Mike Carp, who had a very good season in his platoon role. An outfielder and first baseman, Carp will have his share of at bats against right handed pitching and as a pinch hitter, whether it is in left or at first. My question is would the Sox want to keep six outfielders on their roster? While Carp is the backup first baseman, Nava can also play first. Victorino, Nava, and Gomes are locks to be with the big league team all year long. Bradley is unlikely to get sent down unless he really struggles, so he too is a lock for a big league spot. The team didn’t sign Sizemore to a guaranteed contract just to release him early in spring. So that leaves the 27 year old Carp as the potential odd man out. Keep in mind that this is my pure speculation, but his $1.4 million salary along with his age and production seem to make him a tradable asset. What the team could get back for him or would be looking to get back for him is unknown, but he is a guy that can start on other MLB teams. Another option could be Sizemore starting the year on the DL or carrying one less pitcher, but trading Carp is not out of the realm of possibility.
With the amount of versatility and talent this outfield has, this group should be one of the deepest positions on the team. Everyone can play multiple spots and hit all around the lineup, a huge advantage for the team. 2014 should see continued success from the Red Sox outfield, even without Ellsbury.
It was a challenging week for the Providence Bruins, playing four games in seven days for only the second time all season. Add on some call-ups, returns, injuries and trades and it makes this week that much more challenging for the P-Bruins. Despite all of this, the team rose to the occasion by winning three of four games and taking seven of a possible eight points. Providence also jumped from ninth to sixth in the Eastern Conference.
Providence started their week beating the St. John’s IceCaps 3-2 on February 4 behind good goaltending from Malcolm Subban and goals from Matt Lindblad, Craig Cunningham and Anthony Camara. The following night the two teams faced off again, with the Bruins earning a point in a shootout loss.
After two days off, Providence ended their five game road trip in Manchester with another 3-2 victory. Niklas Svedberg got the call in net and performed well while 8 different Bruins scored points. Their week concluded with a home game against the Springfield Falcons which they won 3-1. Svedberg played well again while Mike Moore, Tyler Randell and Alexander Khokhlachev netted goals.
Perhaps the biggest news for the team had nothing to do with their play on the ice. The Bruins traded Carter Camper, who has a toe injury, to the Falcons in exchange for Blake Parlett. Parlett is a good defenseman, as he has posted 4 goals and 14 assists in 39 games this season and fills a nice need for this team. However losing Camper is a blow to the Bruin offense. Camper, who was set to be a free agent at the end of the year, was the third leading scorer at the time of this trade and beginning to step into the role of a team leader.
Unfortunately, the other big news is on the injury front. Leading scorer Nick Johnson was injured during this stretch along with Zach Trotman and Andrew Cherniwchan. Jarred Knight remains out and Joe Morrow suffered a scary knee injury. After thinking he would be out for the season with a knee injury, he is only expected to miss six weeks with a knee cap injury.
If any team can handle the roster shake ups, it would be Providence. The Bruins, third in the AHL with 163 goals, have 10 players with 24 or more points, so the scoring has been very balanced with no one player carrying the team. With the amount of roster changes all season, Providence has been forced to do this.
As the season enters its final months, Providence looks to be in good shape so long as the injury bug doesn’t bite them too long. Though they have some key guys out, their other stars like Cunningham, Khokhlachev and Florek remain while players like Ryan Spooner and David Warsofsky are back from Boston. Add in winning goaltender play from both Svedberg and Subban and Providence is in good playoff position.
The halfway point of the AHL season has recently passed, and the Providence Bruins remain in good position to make the postseason for the second consecutive year. The P-Bruins sit at 20-13-1-5, and their 46 pts are good for second in the Atlantic Division and sixth in the Eastern Conference. However, it has been rough going for the team in recent days. The team dropped 2 of 3 games over the weekend while scoring just 1 goal in 9 periods over that stretch. The only win they had came on the 10th, a 1-0 shootout win. Goaltending was not a problem, as the combination of Niklas Svedberg and David LeNeveu gave up 3 goals in 3 games. The offense has struggled and looked out of sorts, including a 0-11 power play total. The team, despite that horrid stretch, is still 5th in the league in power play efficiency and has been a good offensive team most of the season.
Why were they in a rut in recent days? It likely stems from the loss of some of their play makers. Ryan Spooner, Justin Florek, and Matt Fraser were important members of their scoring attack, and while they survived their promotions for a time, consistently putting up production without your stars is difficult. Spooner, who was the lone P-Bruin named to the AHL All-Star team, will likely remain in Boston for a while, but Florek and Fraser have been sent back down and will be back in action tonight for Providence. Florek scored his first NHL goal against the Kings on January 9th, and his 22 AHL points are good for 5th on the team. Fraser has been the best goal scorer in all of the AHL over the past 3 seasons, and despite only playing in 23 games, his 16 goals lead the team. With most of their talent back in the fold now, I expect the offense to pick right back up and blow off last weekend as a fluke.
Florek and Fraser’s return will complement the rest of the Bruins talent, as giving Carter Camper and Alexander Khokhlachev more scoring options will spark the Bruins offense and give them more scoring chances. When together, the Bruins top lines have been very productive. Nick Johnson and Florek, aside from being top 5 scorers on the team, both have a rating of +12. Camper leads the team in scoring with 29 points and assists with 21. Craig Cunningham is on pace for another 25 goal season with 13 goals so far. These players have all played well together, so getting them back together, at least for the time being, makes this offense a big threat again.
Another unit of strength for this team has been defensemen. A unit that has played well all year continues to impress, as 5 of 7 defensemen on the roster have positive ratings. Joe Morrow, one of the lone defensemen that doesn’t, leads the group with 22 points. David Warsofsky continues to be the team’s best defenseman, posting 19 points and leading the team with a +13 rating. Should the Boston Bruins suffer another injury to their defense, Warsofsky would be the likely candidate for promotion with how well he’s played. Among the other notables, Zach Trotman hasn’t put up the offensive numbers that Morrow or Warsofsky have, but has still played very well. The young defenseman has a solid +12 rating, and every time I watch him play, I like him even more.
Providence looks to get back on track tonight with Svedberg starting in net against the Scranton Penguins.
Another year, another AFC Championship game for the New England Patriots. For the 8th time in 13 years the Pats will be playing for the AFC title and for the third time the team will have to face Peyton Manning to advance. In this Brady-Manning rivalry the winner of that game also went on to win the Super Bowl, however this will be the first playoff bout between them since Manning signed with the Broncos. The last time these two teams met, the Patriots had one of the greatest comebacks in team history beating the Broncos 34-31 in OT.
Amongst the biggest takeaways from that game from a defensive standpoint was Denver running wild on New England. They rushed for an unbelievable 280 yards on 48 carries. This was part of the chess match being played as the Patriots had at least 5 defensive backs in every play to make sure Manning wouldn’t be the one to beat them. When Manning saw that he had a favorable run look, he audibled out of the pass to the run and was content to move the ball that way. The Patriots basically dared the Broncos to run it, and that’s just what they did. Stopping the run has been a problem much of the year for this defense, but it would seem likely that this is the strategy again. I still expect the Broncos to be able to run effectively, but not for 280 yards. The Broncos’ offensive line manhandled the Patriots defensive line most of the game, but since then the Patriots have had better play from this group. Sealver Siliga has stabilized that position since his arrival on December 1st and has really played well for the team. Chris Jones (90 snaps) and Joe Vellano (70 snaps), were not effective despite being on the field most of that game, so adding Siliga to that mix will certainly help stop the run. One thing to note is that Siliga has not played more than 55 snaps in any game this year, so it will be interesting to see the playing time each defensive tackle gets.
The world saw Jamie Collins’ coming out party in Saturday’s win against the Colts. With Brandon Spikes done for the season, Collins played all 65 defensive plays for the first time in his career, recording 6 tackles, 1 sack, and 1 interception. The young linebacker is learning on the fly but playing well for this team, showing promise every time he hits the field. As I touched on last week, Spikes is primarily a run stopper and a liability in pass defense while Collins is an upgrade in passing situations. Seeing as the team is primarily going to be focused on Manning, having Collins in the game over Spikes again should actually benefit the Patriots. Keep in mind that Collins played about 25% of the snaps in their previous match up, totaling a season high 10 tackles. He along with Dane Fletcher were effective in the game, so that bodes well for this defense.
In the secondary, this may be the healthiest the Patriots have been all year. Aqib Talib did a great job on Demaryius Thomas most of the game, but as Thomas became more physical down the stretch and the ball was forced to him, he had success against Talib. Now that Talib seems fully recovered from a hip injury, this is a match up that he must continue to take away. Alfonzo Dennard, Kyle Arrington, Logan Ryan, Devin McCourty, and Steve Gregory will all have to play well in order to stop this potent Denver passing game. This unit held Manning to a season low 150 yards passing as they keyed on taking away the pass. Arrington, who was replaced against the Colts in the second quarter, played well against Wes Welker in the slot and will likely get a chance to do it again as slot coverage is his strength. One offensive weapon that the Broncos could focus on is TE Julius Thomas, who didn’t play against the team in November. Jacob Tamme, his replacement in that game, had a solid performance against them so slowing Thomas down will be another challenge.
Offensively, the Patriots are known for changing their approach based on the opponent. They can pretty much attack this defense in any way they want. The Broncos have had a suspect defense all year long, specifically in the passing game where they were ranked only 27th. In the November 24th match up, the Bronco secondary took a hit when Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie was injured and missed the second half of the game. The Patriots were able to capitalize on him being out and while he is a go for Sunday, top CB Chris Harris will be out with a torn ACL.
Its important to recognize that Rob Gronkowski will obviously be out of this game, so that gives the Broncos one less thing to prepare for. But without Harris this defense could get lit up by Tom Brady. Also, LeGarrette Blount hadn’t become the player that carried the Patriots’ offense to 355 yards rushing and 6 TDs over the last two games. The team had 116 yards rushing in a game where their running back situation was in flux, so now that they have developed this power running game it gives them many options. Pounding it with Blount and Stevan Ridley effectively sets up their pass game, and without a dominant receiver for the defense to focus in on like Gronkowski, play action should be there for the Patriots. Denver’s linebackers bit on play action last meeting and opened up the middle of the field for Brady. We saw the benefits last week when after several runs, a play action pass to Danny Amendola deep down field was wide open because the safety bit on the play. I see no reason why this can’t be a big factor in this game as well, especially if the Broncos focus on Blount. The Patriots also can get their play makers like Julian Edelman, Amendola, and Shane Vereen running room and screen passes, as quick throws should be there. If the Patriots can get receivers matched up on linebackers, that would be a huge advantage for New England.
If the Patriots are going to win this game, the defensive line and linebackers are going to have to contain the run game better than the last time. It starts with the defensive line not getting knocked back every play by Denver. They are also going to have to play as well as they did in the secondary to limit Manning, something easier said than done because of the amount of talent the Broncos have. The Patriots should be able to score on the Broncos consistently, so turnovers to me are the X factor in this game. Early turnovers put the Patriots in a deep early hole while late turnovers gave them a chance to come back. Protecting these quarterbacks is obviously important because given time they will not make bad decisions. Forcing them to make a quick throw could mean an interception and could mean the game. Without Von Miller for the Broncos, protecting Brady will be easier than protecting Manning.
The Patriots are the underdog in this game but this is going to be a great match between two all time greats. To me, the team that wins the turnover battle wins this game.
The Patriots found out Sunday afternoon that they will be taking on the Indianapolis Colts Saturday in their divisional playoff game. With the Bengals loss to the Chargers, the Colts were the highest remaining AFC seed and as such will face the two seeded Patriots. New England is favored by 7.5 points, but the Colts will provide a big test to this team.
For one thing this a Colts team that is coming off one of the greatest playoff comebacks in NFL history. Down 38-10, Andrew Luck and the Colts refused to quit and came back to beat the Chiefs 45-44. Granted the Chiefs had many key players go down to injury in the game, but what the Colts were able to do was unbelievable. What stood out above everything else was the chemistry of Luck and receiver T.Y. Hilton. That duo connected for 13 receptions, 224 yards, and 2 touchdowns including the game winner. The Patriots and Bill Belichick are known for taking away opponents top threats, as they have done it repeatedly throughout the years. Hilton would seem to be the player they game plan around. Aqib Talib will be matched up on Hilton in all likelihood, and when healthy he has been as close to a shutdown corner as can be. If Talib can take Hilton out of the game in a 1 on 1 match up, that would be huge for the Patriots secondary. However with no other dynamic threat in the passing game, double covering him is also an option the team may use. If the Colts can’t get Hilton going as a result, I wouldn’t be surprised if they give him some screen passes and use his skills to make a play that way.
This means that Luck will be forced to go to his other receivers. TE Coby Fleener had the second most catches for the Colts this year and could be poised for a big game against a team that has allowed opposing tight ends to have some big games. The Colts will be without Darrius Heyward-Bey, and while he’s not a huge loss other wide outs like Griff Whalen, LaVon Brazill, and Da’Rick Rogers will be called upon to step their games up. An interesting move on Monday was that Indianapolis signed former Patriots WR Deion Branch. It’s unlikely that he will provide much in terms of production for the team, but his value will likely be to provide the Colts with any information they can get about the Patriots playbook. That too will likely be limited, but any advice he can give to the Colt receivers will be a plus for them. Luck is good enough to get the most out of his receivers, similar to what Tom Brady has done this year. He has lost his number one target (Reggie Wayne) and has still found a way to help his team win. Unlike Brady, Luck isn’t hesitant to use his legs to make a play, something Belichick has noted. Luck has one prior game against the Patriots in 2012, going 27-of-50 for 334 yards, two touchdowns and three interceptions. Though he had three picks in his most recent game as well, turnovers have not been a problem for the young QB. Luck only had 14 turnovers all season long, but a team that thrives on turnovers like the Patriots could be able to force him into some interceptions.
With Brandon Spikes now out for the season with a knee injury, it will be interesting to see how the Colts use the run game against the Patriots. The Colts were only 26th in the league in rushing this season, but against the 30th rank run defense that lost its best remaining run stopper it could be another area Indy looks to exploit. The loss of Spikes just continues to add to the list of injured Patriots, but this is one that, at this point, may not be too bad. As mentioned Indianapolis doesn’t run the ball particularly well and, assuming the Patriots move on, the Broncos main attack is through the air. Spikes really didn’t do much in the passing game, so he won’t be missed in that regard. His loss would be most felt in a potential Super Bowl match up with the Seahawks, 49ers, or Panthers. In the meantime, Jamie Collins and Dane Fletcher should be capable replacements.
Offensively, I expect New England’s run game to be a big factor in this game. Indy has the 26th ranked run defense in the league and are coming off a game in which they let a Jamaal Charles-less Chiefs team run for 150 yards. LeGarrette Blount is coming off the best game of the season and Stevan Ridley continues to look more comfortable as the season goes on. Add in Brandon Bolden and Shane Vereen to the mix and the Patriots have one of the best rushing attacks among the remaining teams in the playoffs. Ball control and time of possession will be huge in this game since both teams have outstanding QBs, and keeping Luck off the field is obviously a good thing for New England.
Using the run will also minimize how effective Robert Mathis can be on defense for the Colts. Mathis led the league with 19.5 sacks this season and is fully capable of dominating a game. Running effectively will limit the amount of chances he has to get to Brady, along with setting up the play action passes and screen passes. This also bodes well for New England since quick throws is what they do best on offense. Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola, and Vereen all make things happen after the catch, so getting them space to make things happen will be a key as it has been all season. We have seen them somewhat reluctant to do this early on in games from the Patriots and this lack of “playing desperate” is one of the reasons they have struggled in the first halves of games. Another thing I will be looking at is the Patriots red zone effectiveness. The Colts are middle of the pack in terms of red zone touchdowns given up, but without Rob Gronkowski the Patriots have struggled in the red zone. Finding a way to finish drives will have to result in good play calling since Gronk isn’t there to take up a double team and since the Patriots don’t have a big receiver they can throw a jump ball to.
Getting off to a good start and keeping their foot on the gas is important against this resilient Colt team. The Colts, a dome team, haven’t had much experience in the cold, and on what promises to be a blustery New England night, that could provide another advantage for the Patriots. The bottom line is that this Patriot team is better than this Colts team when they both play their best game. Luck and the Colts will surely get their fair share of points, but I don’t think it will be enough. The Patriots should be able to run the ball well and Brady should be able to pick apart the Colt secondary. I have the Patriots winning this game 35-24.
It has been an offseason of change for the Pawtucket Red Sox, both on the field and in the dugout. With more moves sure to come before the 2014 season begins, let’s take a look at what has gone on in Pawtucket thus far.
After a tremendous season as PawSox manger, Gary DiSarcina has been hired as the Angels third base coach. He led Pawtucket to an 80-63 record in 2013, winning the I.L. North and getting to the Governors’ Cup Finals. Several members of Boston’s World Series team passed through Pawtucket under his watch, including Xander Bogaerts, Brandon Workman, Will Middlebrooks, Drake Britton, and Jackie Bradley Jr. His only season as PawSox skipper also saw him win the 2013 Baseball America Minor League Manager of the year award.
Replacing DiSarcina at the helm will be former Portland Sea Dogs manager Kevin Boles. Boles has been in the organization since 2008 and has been the Sea Dogs’ manager since 2011. He is a great fit for this job because of his experience with many players who will be on Pawtucket’s 2014 roster. Pitchers and top prospects Anthony Ranaudo and Matt Barnes were both managed by Boles last season and had great success. At this crucial point in both of their careers, having a manager that knows them is a great thing for the organization. Catcher Christian Vazquez and third baseman Garin Cecchini also fall into this category, as each were managed by Boles most of the season and both will be entering their first full season of Triple-A. Henry Owens and Deven Marrero are players who will remain in Portland to start 2014, but have a good chance to be promoted at some point. His familiarity with those players as well makes this a great hire for the PawSox.
Like any other Pawtucket offseason, player movement was rapid again. Several members of last year’s squad has moved on, while other players have been brought in or promoted to fill their spots. The bullpen probably took the biggest hit in terms of player movement. The back end will be completely different, as Anthony Carter signed with the Padres and Ryan Rowland-Smith signed with the Diamondbacks. Other departing members include Brock Huntzinger (Orioles), Chris Martin (trade to Colorado), Pedro Beato (Reds), Chris Carpenter (Japan), Jose De La Torre (claimed by Brewers), and Terry Doyle (White Sox). Among some of the guys Pawtucket has signed to replace them, two stand out. John Ely missed 2013 due to Tommy John surgery, but has MLB experience and won the PCL pitching Triple Crown in 2012. Shunsuke Watanabe is a Japanese submariner who will be coming to the United States as a 37 year old rookie. A 13 year veteran in Japan, he will rely on the deception of his delivery to get batters out with the PawSox.
Maybe the biggest name of the position players who have left Boston didn’t even play for the PawSox last season. What looked like a promising career for Ryan Kalish turned into injury after injury. Kalish missed parts of the 2007, 2008, 2011, 2012, and 2013 seasons with injuries, derailing the former number one prospect’s career to a level no one expected. He was non-tendered by Boston and eventually signed with the Cubs on a minor league contract. While he didn’t play an inning in 2013, many players who played a bulk of time in Pawtucket have also moved on. Jeremy Hazelbaker (trade with Dodgers) will be missed as his speed will be tough to replace. Jonathan Diaz (Blue Jays) was a consistent infielder for the club who could play multiple positions. Mark Hamilton (Braves) was the team’s best run producer and one of their better power threats despite struggling down the stretch.
Some of these players will be replaced within, as the resigning of Brandon Snyder and the likely promotion of Cecchini will help the offense replace some production. One player the team did sign was Mike McCoy, one of my favorite signings of the offseason for the club. McCoy has MLB experience and has played every position other than first base and catcher. Primarily a middle infielder, he gives a solid at bat every time up with little power. With minor league rosters constantly changing, having a super utility man like him is a great asset to the team.
It’s shaping up to be a great season once again in Pawtucket and with many more moves likely to come, the final roster for Pawtucket probably won’t shape out until Spring Training.
The world of minor league hockey is filled with transactions. That’s just the name of the game. But this past week the Providence Bruins were dealt five tough blows to a roster competing for first place in their division. With the Boston Bruins dealing with numerous injuries, the team called up Ryan Spooner and Matt Fraser from the P-Bruins. Spooner is the number one prospect in the organization and was the leading scorer (23 pts.) for Providence. The Center’s 18 assists were also first on the team as he continues to put up good production and make his line mates better at the AHL level. One of the biggest reasons he remained in the AHL was because the Bruins already had playmaking Centers in David Krejci and Patrice Bergeron. But now that Loui Eriksson and Chris Kelly are on IR, the organization hopes his playmaking ability will help give the lower lines a spark. Fraser was leading the team in scoring at the time he was promoted and his 16 goals were good for second in the AHL.
As if taking away the top two scorers for Providence wasn’t enough, the team recalled Nick Johnson later in the week, the team’s third leading scorer. Johnson was having a very good year, tallying 11 goals with 9 assists while posting a +7 rating which was first amongst the team’s forwards. Also, Kevan Miller has been up and down from Boston with the several injuries to Bruins’ defensemen, and the organization is very happy with how he’s played so far.
This leaves Alexander Khokhlachev as the team’s top scoring forward on the roster, but he has been recently hit by the injury bug. A hand injury for the young prospect will keep him out 2-4 weeks, taking another threat away from Providence.
As with any call-up or injury, other players are going to have to make up for the losses. The line of Carter Camper, Craig Cunningham, and Jared Knight will have to take over as the top line for the time being as that is clearly the line with the most talent. The other lines will be featuring new players and combinations, and as such it will take a little bit of time to see how they work out. There was some good and some bad on Friday night, as the team pulled out the shootout win 4-3, but had to come back in the final seconds to do it after playing a rough game. The chemistry just wasn’t there for the team and the play wasn’t very sharp. However, the team kept fighting, and it resulted in a goal with the net empty for Alexander Fallstrom. Fallstrom also had the lone goal in the shootout. Of all the new players on the ice for Providence, Andrew Cherniwchan looked the best out there to me. In his first AHL game, he scored a goal and looked comfortable on the ice. It is obviously just one game, but I will be looking to see how he continues to improve.
The P-Bruins defensemen need to continue their good play as well with the recent roster shake ups. This group has played well all year long and should continue to do so with the talent they have. Joe Morrow leads from a scoring standpoint, as he has 18 points and is the leading scorer currently on the roster. Zach Trotman leads in rating with a +11. The team’s best all round defensemen this year in my view though is David Warsofsky. He has totaled 16 points and a rating of +10. It was thought going into this season that Warsofsky was primed for a good year, and he has not disappointed thus far.
The Providence goaltending also continues to be solid. Niklas Svedberg remains the starter and while he might not have the same All-Star numbers as last year, he is still having a good season. Young Malcolm Subban has been very impressive in his starts. In his first professional season where struggles were to be expected, he has done anything but. While he is only 4-5-1, he has a GAA of 2.69 with a save percentage of 91%. It will be interesting to see how much playing time each goalie gets, but I would have to think that Svedberg gets more minutes down the stretch since it is only Subban’s first season and his chance of fatigue is higher.
The P-Bruins sit at second place in the Atlantic Division at 14-8-1-3 with 32 points. They will travel to Bridgeport to take on the Sound Tigers tonight at 7:05.